Output Theory

Output Theory

Why Most Substack Writers Plateau — and How to Break Through It

A map of the four plateaus every creator hits; and the one behavior change that unlocks each jump.

Tobias Winkler's avatar
Tobias Winkler
Dec 10, 2025
∙ Paid

Most people think writing online is about ideas, talent, or consistency.

But the deeper truth is this:

Every writer grows in curves. And every curve ends in a plateau.

If you don’t understand the plateaus, you’ll misdiagnose your current stagnation. You’ll think you need “more effort” when what you really need is a different kind of effort.

You’ll grind harder on the wrong thing. You’ll stay stuck.

I’ve gone through each of these curves myself while growing Output Theory from 0 to thousands of readers in a few months. My trajectory wasn’t smooth at all. It was a staircase.

Each jump only happened when I switched leverage types.

Today’s newsletter is the guide I wish I had earlier:
The four growth plateaus, the behavior that breaks each one, and how you can move to the next curve on purpose.


Plateau 1 — The Silent Stage

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